The Fermi Paradox and Drake Equation

Aliens. They should be everywhere. Out of the a hundred billion to trillion stars, each usually with planets, trillions of them are hospitable for potential life. Forty billion of those are solely in the Milky Way, our home galaxy. In theory, the universe should be teeming with life forms, but we haven’t seen a trace. So, as great physicist Enrico Fermi once said, “Where are all the aliens?”

The Big Rip

As stated by www.zmescience.com, an esteemed science source, there are over seven-hundred quintillion planets in our known universe. There’s a one in a billion chance that life can form, and there are millions of billions in a single quintillion. So, how have we not found any aliens yet?

The Big Rip constitutes of one principle. When the Big Bang created our universe, our universe expanded slowly. Scientists have determined that our universe is growing faster and faster. While our universe is growing, it’s also stretching our planets, solar systems, and galaxies apart. The Big Rip is essentially this principle of the Big Bang getting stronger, and stronger, until it rips our planets apart. However, we cannot see our universe past a certain point, and one-in a billion is still a pretty small chance if we’re talking about the observable universe.

Light

Another thing is light travel. We only see an image when it’s light travels back to us. For things here on Earth, that’s almost instant- light travels so fast that we don’t notice the delay. While we can’t ever really measure light’s speed (due to time distortion), we know it still takes a very long time for light to reach us from far away planets in far away galaxies. The point is, we only see images from habitable planets millions of years ago, so we likely wouldn’t see any visible modifications to the planet’s surface.

So… The Drake Equation

N = R*fpneflfifcL. The Drake Equation- a formula created by Frank Drake in 1961, to calculate how many planets with extraterrestrial life forms should exist. Now, this isn’t foolproof- even if you solved the Drake Equation, it wouldn’t necessarily be true. It’s just a theory. For all you know, we could be alone in the universe. Or just be the first. Or one of few. You get the idea, there are endless possibilities. And math is just math- it can’t calculate what you’re going to do next, just as it can’t calculate for sure how many aliens are out there. The truth is, we don’t even know all the properties for life to form! However, the Drake Equation still comes into handy.

So, what do all the variables stand for in the Equation?

  • N = number of planets with alien life that we could communicate (answer to the Drake Equation)
  • R* = mean rate of star formation (three stars per year)
  • fP = fraction of stars that have planets (according to NASA, 7/10)
  • ne = mean number of planets that could support life per star with planets (~40 billion, according to NASA)
  • fl = fraction of life-supporting planets that develop life (unknown)
  • fi = fraction of planets with life where life develops intelligence (unknown)
  • fc = fraction of intelligent civilizations that develop communication (unknown)
  • L = mean length of time that civilizations can communicate (~10,000)

Solution?

While there is no definitive solution to the drake equation, as many variables are undetermined, there are some very rough estimates. For example, a recent Monte Carlo experiment computed about 15,600,000 planets with life in our communication range, while another computed 304. As stated, there is a wide range of results. So it’s safe to say there isn’t a solution to the drake equation- however it guarantee’s at least one planet- one planet out there, in the vast expanse of space.

Where Are All The Aliens?

Enrico Fermi had a point, a very good point. Seriously, where are they? The Drake Equation might guarantee a single planet out there, but it’s speculation. There might be nothing out there. We might be alone at this point in reality. Or we’re in a universe with aliens, possibly everywhere, and we’re just too insignificant and primitive to realize it. Both are equally terrifying. For now, we’re alone. But who knows? At any point, we could meet an intelligent life form from another planet, starting technological revolution, or an interplanetary war. We’ll have to settle with being alone for now though- but don’t get too comfortable alone.